There is no single factor that explains the global pilot shortage.
The shortage is due to several factors, fortunately, many of which are currently being addressed. However, there is no quick fix – it will take months and years to correct itself. The most significant factors causing the pilot shortage include:
Retirements
Many pilots are reaching retirement age, and the pipeline for new pilots is not keeping pace with the volumes of pilot retirements. There have been proposals to increase the retirement age to 67 years. However, it is extremely unlikely this will happen in the foreseeable future. Regulatory bodies and agencies, such as the FAA and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), do not support the increase, citing safety concerns as the primary barrier.
Global Air Travel Demand
Air travel demand is increasing significantly, particularly in emerging markets such as Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where populations and incomes are growing. IATA forecasts that by 2043, the number of annual air passengers is expected to reach approximately 8.5 billion, up from about 4.5 billion in 2019. However, it is worth noting that challenges may limit long-term growth, including economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and pandemics.
Fleet Expansion
Airbus and Boeing forecast that the world’s commercial airline fleet will almost double in the next 20 years, with each aircraft manufacturer forecasting 44,000 and 42,500 new aircraft, respectively. Approximately 45% will be for replacement aircraft, while 55% will be to meet growth forecasts – the latter posing a significant challenge to pilot supply.
COVID-19
Massive layoffs and fast-tracked retirements resulted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Air travel has recovered to pre-COVID-19 volumes, and now, many airlines are struggling to rehire and train new pilots to meet demand. A few airlines, such as Singapore Airlines, experienced a robust post-pandemic recovery, primarily due to their strategic decision to preserve their workforce during the pandemic and Singapore's reopening of their borders, which occurred faster than in other nations.
Training
Training pilots is expensive and time-consuming, and many flight schools are not training the volumes of pilots to meet industry demand. To counter this, there is an upward trend of airlines introducing or expanding their cadet pilot programs.
Regulations
Stricter certification standards have been introduced in specific markets over recent years. Notably, in the US, the FAA introduced the 1,500-hour rule in 2013, mandating that anyone wanting to work as a certified Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) and become a First Officer for a US airline must accumulate a minimum of 1,500 flight hours before they can be certified. This has been challenged by some regional airlines but rejected by the FAA.
Military Pilots
Historically, many commercial pilots come from the military. However, the military pilot pool is on the decline, and fewer pilots are transitioning to civilian aviation. The main reasons cited for the downturn are high costs associated with the transition, and the remuneration isn’t attractive enough to warrant the investment.
Career Change
Many pilots left the industry during the COVID-19 pandemic and transitioned to a new profession that provided a more attractive work-life balance.
While these factors create significant challenges, they also create opportunities. Some of these challenges will be easier to counter than others. Still, with strong long-term strategic planning and partnerships among key stakeholders, increasing pilot supply to meet demand can be achieved in the long-term – success in the aviation industry depends on it!