Long-term forecasts for commercial jet aircraft (2024-2043)
Referring to the latest long-term forecasts by Airbus and Boeing, both aircraft manufacturers project significant growth in new commercial jet aircraft over the next 20 years. Airbus and Boeing forecast global air travel will grow annually by 3.5% and 4.7% respectively. Growth is primarily driven by increasing demand for air travel, including rapid population growth and a rising middle class in emerging markets – notably India, China, and Southeast Asia. Demand for domestic and regional air travel across these emerging markets is expected to be over double that of the forecasted global average rates.
To meet such long-term demand, Airbus calculate that 42,500 new commercial jet aircraft (wide body, single aisle & regional jet) will be required from 2024 to 2043. Boeing predict more are required, approximately 44,000 new aircraft.
Apart from total aircraft forecasts, both aircraft manufacturers do have similar key forecasts for the long-term, some including:
- Single-aisle aircraft are expected to dominate future deliveries due to the growth of low-cost carriers, strong demand for air travel in emerging markets, and the increasing popularity of point-to-point services. Airbus & Boeing project 75-80% of future aircraft deliveries will be single-aisle aircraft (inclusive of regional jets). Note only Boeing specify forecasted deliveries of regional jets – just 3.7% of total future deliveries are expected to be regional jets.
- Asia Pacific (excluding China), North America, and China will account for 60-65% of aircraft deliveries.
- Passenger aircraft will account for 98% of the world’s aircraft fleet, with 2% being wide-body freighter aircraft.
- Between 53%-56% of deliveries will be new aircraft to meet the rise in long-term air travel. The balance of deliveries will be to replace older jet aircraft already in service.
- Over 2,000,000 new personnel (pilots, cabin crew and technicians) will be required to support the raid increase in air travel and aircraft deliveries. One forecast where each aircraft manufacturer differs is the number of new pilots required to operate the predicted size of the global fleet come 2043. Airbus forecast that 620,000 pilots will be needed. Boeing forecast 674,000.
There is no doubt that the forecasted demand for global air travel and aircraft required to support such growth presents significant challenges in the years ahead. Many factors yet to be seen will have a massive impact on how and whether these forecasts will be delivered. Examples include: will the global pilot shortage be addressed long-term, how will new technologies (e.g. hydrogen powered aircraft) and the entrance of COMAC impact the supply of new aircraft. Will global supply chains be able to keep up with demand? Only time will tell.
One thing that is for certain, fleet modernization will greatly assist airline’s sustainability and economic positions. With more fuel-efficient aircraft brings less carbon emissions and lower operating costs - both positive for the environment and airlines’ bottom line.
Sources
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024-2043
Airbus Global Services Forecast 2024-2043
Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2024-2043